Rural Business Outlook: Markets, Finance and the Season | September 2026

Sep 16

12 min read

There has been plenty happening across rural and regional Australia this month, but the common thread is that the decisions being made now will carry consequences well beyond the next season.

In this edition, we look at the proposed CGT changes that could reshape how long-held rural property is valued, the SMSF measures worth watching and what another RBA hold means when the major banks still cannot agree on where rates are heading. We also unpack what the recent rain has changed across the winter crop, where grain and oilseed markets are moving, and why building financial headroom remains more useful than trying to predict the next rate cut.

It has also been a busy month on the ground. We have been at the Australian Cotton Conference, the Ekka, and travelled through Coolah, Narrabri and Coonamble for the Less Guess Work, More Ground Work workshop series. Those conversations reinforced something we see every day: better decisions come from understanding the numbers, considering the people involved and doing the groundwork before pressure forces your hand.

There is plenty in this edition, so take what is useful for your operation. If something raises a question, reply to this email or call me directly. That is what we are here for.

01 The CGT Valuation Reform: New Since Last Month

This is separate from the discretionary trust minimum tax we flagged last month, and it moves on a different timetable. The 2026-27 Federal Budget confirmed that from 1 July 2027, the flat 50 per cent CGT discount for individuals, trusts and partnerships is being replaced with a CPI-based cost base indexation model, alongside a new 30 per cent minimum tax on net capital gains for assets held over 12 months. For the first time since CGT began in 1985, pre-CGT assets, including rural land held by the same family for generations, will fall inside the net for growth accrued after the changeover date. The reform is prospective, not retrospective. But the line in the sand is 1 July 2027, and how that line gets drawn on your property is the whole game.

The transitional protection only applies to property and assets already held before Budget night, 12 May 2026. For those, the gain built up before 1 July 2027 stays under the existing 50 per cent discount, and only the gain accrued after that date falls under the new rules. Assets acquired after Budget night do not get that split. The main residence exemption, small business CGT concessions and superannuation are all unaffected by this reform.

The choice accountants are being told to weigh carefully

Taxpayers will have two ways to set the 1 July 2027 cost base: a formal, independent market valuation as at that date, or the ATO's own apportionment formula, which assumes growth occurred evenly across the whole period of ownership. The formula is free. It is also built on an assumption that is rarely true on rural land, where growth arrives in bursts tied to season, commodity cycles and district demand, not in a straight line.

CPA Australia has already flagged the practical consequence in submissions on the draft legislation: landholders whose property did most of its growing early, then plateaued, will be disadvantaged by the formula, because it pushes a slab of gain that genuinely accrued under the old rules into the new, less generous regime. The ATO has not yet published final guidance on substantiation, but the signal from every credible tax and valuation source tracking this reform is consistent, an independent valuation taken around 1 July 2027 will, in the majority of cases, produce a more favourable and more defensible outcome than relying on the apportionment formula after the fact. The ATO's own evidence hierarchy puts a dated, independent report from a registered valuer at the top. A real estate agent's appraisal does not meet that bar.

What This Means for Succession and Transfers

If a transfer of ownership, a succession step, or a restructure between entities and generations is already on your horizon, the timing of a formal valuation is no longer a paperwork exercise. Book it deliberately in the lead-up to July 2027, rather than reconstructing one after the event. A retrospective valuation is not the same protection as a contemporaneous one taken at the time, and the ATO's own fallback formula is unlikely to be reviewed favourably against a proper valuation undertaken when the changeover actually happened. If finance activity is also on the cards around the same time, ask whether the valuer you instruct sits on your bank's panel. A report that clears the ATO's evidence bar can often satisfy your lender as well, saving a second fee and putting fresh, credible equity evidence in hand at exactly the point it is most useful in a finance conversation. This is general commentary, not advice on your specific position, and the legislation is not yet finalised. Raise it with your accountant now, and loop in your Bullagreen adviser if we are already working through a succession or transfer timeline with you.

02 SMSF: Signalled Changes Worth Tracking

What This Means for Rural SMSF Trustees

If your fund holds, or is considering holding, farmland or a residential component on farmland, the business real property test is the practical question, not the residential label. Get that classification checked with your accountant before assuming grandfathering protects an existing arrangement, and before entering any new borrowing inside the fund. This is general commentary, not advice on your fund's specific position, and several of the measures above are proposals only. Speak with your accountant, and loop in your Bullagreen adviser if super sits inside a succession or acquisition structure we are already working through with you.

03 Rates and Money: The Hold Continues, the Housing Story Underneath It Doesn’t

RBA: second consecutive hold

The RBA board held the cash rate at 4.35 per cent on 11 August, unanimously, the second consecutive hold after the pause that began in June. Governor Michele Bullock was direct in the press conference that followed, inflation is still too high, the board remains concerned about the outlook, and a further period of subdued growth is likely needed before the board can be confident inflation is heading back to target under current settings. The updated Statement on Monetary Policy lifted the growth forecast slightly to 1.4 per cent for the year, while pushing the expected return of inflation to the 2 to 3 per cent target band out to early 2028, with the board flagging the risks to that timeline as skewed to the upside.

The major banks remain genuinely split on what comes next. ANZ has cuts pencilled in for September and December, taking the rate to 3.85 per cent by the end of 2027. CBA sees a similar destination on a different timetable. NAB is the most dovish, with three cuts through to December that would bring the rate to 3.60 per cent. Nobody, including the banks with the biggest economics teams in the country, is confident about the next move. For anyone carrying variable-rate debt, that argues for building headroom into cash flow now rather than assuming relief is close.

The housing story behind the rate hold

The property market slowdown that has been building all year has now shown up directly in two state budgets. NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey has confirmed stamp duty collections are likely to come in around $5 billion lower than forecast over the four-year forward estimates, with land tax receipts down a further $3 billion over the same period, driven by a weaker outlook for property prices and transaction volumes since the cash rate shifted. The NSW Budget papers show $8.4 billion less in transfer duty and land tax revenue collected than last year's forecast assumed. Queensland Treasurer David Janetzki is preparing a similar downgrade to stamp duty receipts, citing the Middle East conflict, interest rate settings and federal budget uncertainty as drivers.

This is not just a budget-paper story. RBC Capital Markets put the probability at more than 50 per cent that both NSW and Queensland lose their AA+ credit rating before Christmas, in part because of how reliant both states have become on a genuinely volatile revenue line, stamp duty comprises 16 per cent of NSW revenue and 15 per cent of Queensland's.

On the ground, the softness is visible in real time. Sydney auctioneer Tom Panos, with thirty years in the industry, has described the current market as the weakest he has seen, with zero bidder registrations at some of his own auctions for two consecutive weekends running. Domain data for Sydney has clearance rates sitting below 50 per cent, with withdrawals accounting for roughly a third of reported campaigns, meaning many vendors are pulling properties from public auction altogether rather than testing a thin market. Brisbane and Adelaide are showing similarly weak conversion. One Sydney buyer's advocate put average registered bidder numbers at around 2.5 currently, down from roughly five earlier in the year.

Why This Matters Beyond Residential Property

Two things follow directly for our clients. First, if property tax revenue keeps underperforming, expect state governments to look elsewhere, and land tax, payroll tax and other transaction-based levies are the obvious places they look next. Second, a genuinely soft urban housing market changes the calculus on anyone weighing off-farm diversification into residential property, or timing a sale of non-core residential holdings inside a broader structure. This is general commentary on a fast-moving market, not a signal to act. Talk to your Bullagreen adviser before making a call either way.

04 The Season: What the Rain Actually Did

ABARES' national forecast still sits at 54.5 million tonnes for the 2026-27 winter crop, down 21 per cent on last year's exceptional season but still the seventh-largest on record. That headline understates how differently the season has run region to region. Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria went into winter with average to well above average soil moisture from a strong February to April, and planting confidence followed. Northern New South Wales and southern Queensland told a different story through May, extremely dry, low soil moisture, and growers making tough calls on area and inputs rather than chasing yield they could not see a path to.

The rain through July and into August has genuinely shifted that picture. RaboResearch's Vitor Pistoia put it plainly in late July, the national crop "really changed" following the run of rain that helped establish crops and rebuild confidence, moving the outlook from below average toward an average season. The caution that comes with that upgrade is real, an El Nino signal raises the risk of a drier than usual spring finish, particularly through southern Queensland and northern NSW, the exact belt that needed the most help getting started. Further rain is forecast to push into NSW, with models calling another system across SA, Victoria and southern NSW around the time this Brief goes to print. Growers holding cereal are, by all accounts, still selling lightly, worth watching, because a run of follow-up rain combined with light on-farm selling has a track record of triggering a wave of grain hitting the market at once.

05 Grains and Oilseeds: Where the Money Is Actually Moving

Two separate stories are running in the grain and oilseed complex right now, and they are moving in opposite directions.

Cereals are soft

Wheat and barley have drifted lower through late July and into August. Improved local prospects through Victoria and South Australia, a large and cheap Ukrainian harvest (now estimated at 60.5 million tonnes despite worsening Black Sea port disruption from ongoing strikes), and subdued global wheat values on the back of large world crops have all weighed on price. APW wheat has been trading in the mid $350s to $370s across eastern ports through early August, with barley in the low $300s. The picture is not one-way, CBH lifted both old and new crop wheat bids in WA even as global values eased, and Black Sea supply remains genuinely disrupted rather than resolved.

Canola is the standout

Canola has been the clear outperformer through the same window, rallying 2 to 3 per cent across most eastern ports in early August and holding firm through the second week of the month, supported by tighter northern hemisphere oilseed supply, firmer European rapeseed and Canadian canola, and solid pre-harvest export and crusher demand domestically. That strength has held even against a softer soyoil complex, which tells you the demand pull is genuine rather than a spillover effect.

Market	Wheat (APW)	Barley (F1)	Canola	Notes
Brisbane	$395/t (APW1)	n/a	$727/t	Cereals easing; canola firm
Newcastle / Sydney	$355-372/t	n/a	$751/t	Rain pushing further into NSW
Geelong / Melbourne	$355-368/t	$306-322/t	$758-810/t	VIC/SA season notably improved
Albany / WA	$360-370/t	$322-324/t	$830-855/t	Strongest canola bids nationally

On the input side, there is genuine relief. Australian urea eased around 3 per cent through early August as additional Chinese export availability shifted global nitrogen sentiment, and fuel prices have softened slightly, though freight remains elevated. For growers who rationed nitrogen through the dry autumn, that easing has landed at a useful moment for topdressing decisions still being made through winter.

06 On the Road: Cotton Conference, Ekka and Harvest Bridge

Australian Cotton Conference, Gold Coast, 4 to 6 August

The 2026 Conference ran under the theme Future Fit Cotton, and Bullagreen was there talking to growers, agronomists, supply chain partners and industry leaders about the shared challenges the theme was built around, productivity, risk, sustainability and practical innovation on farm. The market and global outlook sessions were genuinely useful this year, Hank Reichle of Staplcotn and NAB's Rodrigo Catril both spoke to the commodity, financial and demand pressures shaping farm business decisions right now, and that framing matched almost exactly what we were hearing one-on-one in the trade hall. Growers are less worried about whether the season will produce a crop and more worried about what it costs to finance, insure and market it properly once it does.

Ekka, AAM and Harvest Bridge Capital

James and Max were kindly invited to attend the Harvest Bridge Capital and AAM lunch at the Ekka on 11 August. This was a great opportunity to catch up with others across the network and continue building relationships in our industry.

07 Less Guess Work, More Ground Work: Central West NSW

James spoke at, and Bullagreen sponsored, the Less Guess Work, More Ground Work workshop series, coordinated by AHN Consulting and supported by the Armidale Node of the Southern Queensland, Northern NSW Innovation Hub. Across three sessions, in Coolah on 25 August, Narromine on 26 August and Coonamble on 27 August, the series brought 102 producers together around practical decision-making, drought preparation and managing pressure when conditions are difficult: 31 attendees in Coolah, 24 in Narromine and 46 in Coonamble.

The response was strong everywhere it was measured. The majority of attendees agreed or strongly agreed that the content was easy to understand, relevant to future drought preparation and likely to result in a practice change. Attendees pointed to feed budgeting, stocking rate calculations, benchmarking and longer-term drought planning, planned stock sales, containment feeding and growing summer feed, alongside earlier decision-making, bank-ready business planning, reviewing interest rates and margins, succession planning and documenting a clear plan before pressure forces the decision. WHS and compliance came up repeatedly as ground producers intended to make up, a point put plainly by one Coonamble attendee: "The WHS has been something we have been putting off for some time. This is now back on our agenda as a priority to get in place."

Feedback from the floor

"Very useful, relevant info which can be taken home and incorporated." (Coolah)

"The variety of speakers made it engaging." (Coolah)

"Provided relevant, realistic and practical skills to apply in preparing our operation." (Narromine)

"Variety of speakers was great. Great tangible data with real life situations." (Narromine)

"I wish people like Bullagreen existed when I went through my family succession 10 years ago, and who knows, maybe I'd still be farming there now." (Coonamble)

The sessions were built around a simple idea: when feed is short and pressure is high, decisions cannot wait, but the wrong call can be expensive. The speaker line-up brought together expertise across decision-making, business exposure, volatility, drought management, livestock feeding and breeding decisions, and, through James, the connection between finance, people and strategy under pressure. For Bullagreen, that practical approach is closely aligned with the way we work with rural clients. Better decisions rarely come from one answer in isolation. They come from putting the groundwork in early, understanding the numbers, considering the people involved and having a clear plan before pressure forces the decision.

08 Building What’s Next: Platform Trials

David's platform, progressing

David Thomson's Azure-based client portal and asset register platform, teased last month, is now supporting a live acquisition for one of the two clients in trial, with early feedback from both clients and their advisers positive. The next phase needs a small number of additional farm businesses willing to pilot it in a live setting and give honest feedback on what works and what doesn't.

The intention remains to have this live for all Bullagreen clients across Finance, Consulting and People by year end, giving every client a single point of contact to their own data instead of managing several disconnected systems. If you run a business where better visibility over assets, records and reporting would genuinely change how decisions get made, this is worth a conversation.

Want in on the Platform Pilot?

Whether you are a client, a partner, or a connection who has simply been following what Bullagreen is building, the platform pilot is open. Reply to this Brief, or call James directly on 0461 374 585, and we will find the right way to bring you in.

Thanks for taking the time to read this month’s Brief.

There is plenty happening across rural and regional Australia and no two operations will feel the impact in quite the same way. If anything in this edition has raised a question, give us a call. We are always happy to talk through what it could mean for your business.

James Brouff

Founder and Group Managing Partner, Bullagreen Rural Specialists

james@bullagreen.au | 0461 374 585 | Dubbo, NSW

Max Laurie

Director, Regional Agribusiness & Advisory, Bullagreen Rural Specialists

max@bullagreen.au | 0437 455 643 | Armidale, NSW